Futures Cone

Explore possible, plausible, and preferred futures to develop foresight and craft future-ready strategies

1. Introduction

The Futures Cone, also known as the Cone of Possibilities or the Cone of Plausibility, is a powerful strategic foresight tool that helps organizations visualize and explore potential future scenarios. This cone-shaped diagram represents a range of possible futures, from highly probable to seemingly preposterous, allowing leaders to anticipate and prepare for various outcomes.

By utilizing the Futures Cone, leaders and changemakers can develop more robust and adaptable strategies for long-term success. This tool encourages creative thinking, helps identify potential risks and opportunities, and provides a structured approach to envisioning and working towards a preferred sustainable future.

Futures Cone is a descriptive tool useful to futurists in visually representing the variety of alternative (potential) future

2. When to use this tool

The Futures Cone is particularly useful when:

  • Developing long-term strategic plans;
  • Exploring potential market disruptions;
  • Assessing sustainability challenges and opportunities;
  • Preparing for technological advancements;
  • Anticipating shifts in consumer behavior or regulatory landscapes.

3. How to use this tool

Step 1: Conduct a 10-year hindsight analysis

Begin by examining relevant trends from the past decade. It is good to look at user (consumer) behaviour, and it pays off to include demographic, regulatory, technological, economic, and ecological developments. This historical perspective provides a foundation for understanding how patterns and trajectories may progress into the future. Notice how changes interrelate, and how some trends (e.g. technological developments) move faster than others (e.g. regulatory responses). 

Step 2: Project trends 10 years into the future

Based on your hindsight analysis, extrapolate these trends into the future. Consider how they might evolve and intersect over the next decade.

Step 3: Generate future ideas

Brainstorm potential scenarios, innovations, and changes that could occur within your industry or business environment. Encourage creativity and diverse perspectives from your team.

Step 4: Plot ideas on the cone

Categorize your generated ideas into probable, plausible, and possible futures on the cone diagram. Probable futures are those most likely to occur based on current trends; plausible futures are less likely but still conceivable; and possible futures include more speculative scenarios.

Step 5: Stretch with wildcards

Incorporate "preposterous" futures at the outer edges of the cone. These are highly unlikely events that could have significant impacts if they were to occur. This exercise helps expand thinking and prepare for unexpected disruptions.

Step 6: Define a preferred future

Based on your analysis and organizational goals, identify the most desirable future scenario. This becomes your target for strategic planning and sustainability initiatives.

4. What outcomes to aim for

  • Forward-thinking strategies: Gain a comprehensive understanding of potential future scenarios and boost your ability to plan for the future.
  • Resilience: Identify key drivers and uncertainties that might affect your business, and be better prepared for various outcomes, including unexpected ones.
  • Clarity of vision: Become more adept at crafting your preferred sustainable future and collecting actionable insights to guide strategic decision-making.

5. Resources and references

This Creation Tool is filed under:
Business
Design

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